Tuesday, September 28, 2021

आंदोलन कैसे चलाएं

 Learning from Successful Movements
इस लेख में पहले तो ऐसे आंदोलनों के कारण लाभ गिनवाता है कि इनका असर निश्चित रूप से पड़ता है। फिर तीन बातें जरूरी बताता है। 
संगठन का विस्तार अनुकूल वातावरण में होता है, आंदोलन प्रतिकूल स्तिथि में ही। यह बहुत विचार करने की बात है। सामान्यतः ऐसा दिखता नहीं है। 
दूसरा बार बार फोल्ल्व एप होता रहना चाहिए। बार बार स्मरण करवाता रहना चाहिए। यह बात भी सामान्यतः लोगों के पल्ले नहीं पड़ेगी।
 जो लोग गांधी की अहिंसा का रोना रोते रहते है वे अहिंसक आन्दोल  का महत्व नहीं जानते, ऐसे लोग हमारे यहां भी काफी हैं। परन्तु यही अहिंसक आंदोलन ही ज्यादातर सफल होते हों। हिंसा होते ही लोग पीछे हटने लगते हैं।
इसी प्रकार से दूसरे लेख में तीन बातें कहते हैं: पहली की दूसरी पार्टी से हमेशा डायलाग बनाए रखिये, दूसरा की अपनी मांगे एक दम स्पष्ट भाषा में और सबको समजब आने वाली होनी चाहिए, और तीसरे की डिजिटल तरीके, ट्विटर, सोशल मीडिया व समाचारों में लगातार बने रहे ।
भाग 3 में आठ तरीके सुझाएँ हैं और समझ में आने वाले हैं:
Organize in a friendly political climate
Mobilize frequently
Choose nonviolent tactics

Our research identified several overarching themes that make activism effective. How can you take an effective approach to your activism work?

 

Learning about the history of social movements is a great place to start. Which progressive social movements have been successful in securing change, and which have failed? Numerous scientific studies have examined which factors make social movements the most successful. Researchers have pooled decades of data on dozens of movements in order to determine, overall, how to create the most progressive change.

 

Thankfully, the research has shown that progressive social movements have been enormously successful in shaping policies, norms, and institutions to secure rights and freedoms for people, animals, and the environment
.[1] We can learn from the successes of prior movements to ensure our own activism is effective and increase our chances of successfully creating change.

 The most effective strategies for social movements overall include:

Organize in a friendly political climate
Mobilize frequently
Choose nonviolent tactics

 

1. Organize in a friendly political climate:
Social movements don’t secure wins out of thin air. Activists have been the most successful when they’ve organized in a favorable political climate. You will be the most likely to secure progressive gains when there is little to no opposition to your movement
,[2] when the public supports your cause
,[3] and when there are more Democrats and progressive allies in office.[
4] All of these factors will tip the scales in your favor. Without allies or support, or in the face of extreme opposition, you will have a very difficult time getting your demands met, even if your demands aren’t directly related to policy.

 

If you don’t currently have support from the public or from elected officials, remember that you are an activist—your work is creating change! You can help create a more favorable climate for yourself. Almost all of the tactics listed in the Effective Activist guide can help shift public opinion in favor of progressive causes, but reading about how to recruit activists to your movement, how to develop effective messaging strategies, and how to effectively protest are good places to start. Our voter mobilization section is a good resource for ensuring more Democrats will be in office to vote in favor of your movement. You can also read up on how to influence elected officials to help you secure powerful allies.

 

California is an excellent case study for activists to examine. California is currently one of the most liberal states in the U.S. and is often at the forefront of progressive change. Many activists take California’s progressive political climate and actions for granted, however. Dr. Veronica Terriquez, a leading expert on activism, has examined California’s progressive history. In the 1990s, California’s voters were largely Republican and passed a number of harmful propositions that hurt communities of color and immigrants. By 2016, however, California had transformed into a largely Democratic state, with 4 million more votes cast for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump.[5] The state is also currently resisting many of the oppressive policies of the Trump administration.

 

Terriquez notes that this change was largely due to grassroots organizing and voter mobilization, often carried out by youth and student leaders. Their work to mobilize marginalized communities, fight for community health and equality, and empower youth has not only led to a more progressive voter base and policy climate, it has also shifted the norms in California. Indeed, one study found that around half of the growth in acceptance of same-sex marriage in California is due to cohort effects,
[6] meaning that young people are growing up in a more progressive climate and being socialized to norms of equality and social justice.

 

What does this mean for activists? Organizing work builds on itself, creating more favorable climates that make future activists more likely to succeed. If you live in a progressive area, maintaining activist infrastructure is key to continuing the forward march of social change. If you live in a highly conservative area, do not give up. Continue organizing so the next generation will be better equipped to help equality and justice flourish.

 

Mobilize frequently

 

Research has shown time and time again that frequent mobilization—protests, boycotts, sit-ins, petitioning, testifying, civil disobedience, and more—leads to social change.
[7] Staying at the forefront of people’s minds and on the front page is crucial for long-term sustainability and success. Do not doubt the power of mobilizing!

 

One study on sit-ins in the U.S. South in the 1960s, in which people of color sat at segregated lunch counters to protest racial segregation, showed that cities with a sit-in were five times more likely to adopt desegregation policies. Even cities that did not have sit-ins themselves, but were nearby a city with a sit-in demonstration, were more likely to desegregate.[8]

 

Research on the U.S. environmental movement found that every protest increased the likelihood of pro-environmental legislation being passed by 1.2%.
[9] Another study found that congressional districts that had 50 minority protests over the course of two years were 5% more likely to have their Congress members vote in support of minority issues.

[10]  Another found that issues that had an above average number of protests experienced a 70% increase in congressional hearings on the issue.[
11] Each of these examples clearly demonstrates the impact of mobilization. It’s difficult for elected officials to ignore or dismiss large numbers of people in the streets.

 

IMP. FOLLOWUP: 
It’s important to note that policymakers are more influenced by protests that include follow-up events and activities than they are by one-time protests.[12] Put simply, short-term mobilization has short-term impact. Infrequent mobilization allows the public to forget about your cause—out of sight, out of mind. In order to hold officials accountable, activists must continually demonstrate the importance of their cause. High-visibility movements are able to sway norms and shift public opinion by showing that people care deeply about the issue, and can even motivate and inspire others to take up activism later on.
[13] Be sure to follow the best practices for protesting and boycotting most effectively, and then get out and mobilize.

 

Choose nonviolent tactics
Some activists have turned to violent tactics out of frustration with the sometimes slow pace of change nonviolent campaigns achieve. While some activists mistakenly believe that extreme and violent tactics are more effective at achieving radical goals,
[14] research has disproved this myth.

 Chenoweth and Stephan’s 2011 book, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, is of the largest studies to examine the effects of nonviolent and violent 🎂social movements. They investigated 323 resistance campaigns around the world between 1900 and 2006 and found that, overall, nonviolent campaigns are two times as effective as violent ones at achieving their stated goals. Around 80% of nonviolent campaigns have been partially or completely successful, as compared to around 40% of violent campaigns. Even when only comparing to successful violent campaigns, nonviolent campaigns are more likely to create more durable and internally peaceful democracies with lower probabilities for relapsing into civil war.
Chenoweth and Stephan found that these barriers substantially impact the size of movements. The average nonviolent campaign has 200,000 members, as compared to 50,000 members for the average violent campaign. Although obtaining more supporters slightly increases the success rate of violent campaigns, it does not outweigh the disadvantages of their tactics. When considering only the top 20 largest campaigns (all of which had over 300,000 members), 70% of nonviolent campaigns were successful, as compared to only 40% of violent campaigns. Overall, their research shows that nonviolent tactics are much more effective.

 Other recent research has also shown that extreme and violent tactics—including property damage, harming living beings, illegal tactics, and inciting violence—may not only be ineffective, but can actually produce a backlash effect and hurt social movements, making them even less likely to achieve their goals than if they had not mobilized at all.[15] Violent campaigns can also sometimes reinforce loyalty and obedience to the regime being challenged.[16]

Although extreme and violent tactics may have been more effective in decades past,[17] when policymakers were less responsive to social movements, today it is largely accepted that groups can achieve human, animal, and environmental rights through nonviolent protest. Thus, violent and extreme tactics are overwhelmingly seen as unnecessary and can reduce public support and push away political allies.

 

One study exposed individuals to different versions of animal rights, Black Lives Matter, and anti-Trump protests. Some people read vignettes of fictitious protests that damaged property, incited violence, and broke the law, while others read about protests that were more moderate. Interestingly, activists predicted that the violent protests would be more effective at increasing public support. In reality, individuals who were exposed to the violent protests supported the progressive social movements less than they did before seeing the protests. In contrast, moderate and nonviolent protests increased support for these social movements
.[18] In another study, elected officials who were shown fictitious violent protests in which activists broke shop windows and were pushing and pulling each other were less likely to view the protest issue as salient, less likely to support the issue, and less likely to take action on the issue. Again, nonviolent protests had the opposite effect and led to an increase in support by elected officials.
[19]
One study even found that areas in the 1960s that had violent protests were more likely to vote Republican (as compared to areas with nonviolent protests, which led to more Democratic voting). The author hypothesizes that this impact was so great that violent protests may have tipped the 1968 presidential election from Hubert Humphrey to Richard Nixon.[
20]
The combined findings of these studies may be surprising to those activists who have become disillusioned with nonviolent tactics. It is important to remember that nonviolence does not only work through “changing hearts and minds”—nonviolent campaigns are highly effective at imposing costly sanctions on opponents and are much more likely to result in strategic gains and regime change.[21] If you feel passionate and urgent about ramping up your impact, using violent tactics will actually make you less likely to succeed. You would do better to follow the numerous recommendations in this Effective Activist guide, which will help you boost the effectiveness of your campaigns and increase your likelihood of success as an activist.
Work will need to be done to bridge divides in activist communities and bring radicals currently pursuing violent tactics into the fold. Just because you, reading this guide, now know that nonviolent methods help achieve the most radical wins, does not mean that all other activists are aware of this. How can you engage in dialogue with activists who use different tactics in order to ensure your movement includes everyone in your community? Can you come to a compromise where you agree to fight for a more radical outcome—more social change that benefits the most marginalized—while using nonviolent tactics?
Now that you understand the factors that best set you up for success, you’re ready to learn how to make change. Let’s dive into the components of effective activism.
।।।।।
2. What Makes a Successful Protest?

Throughout 2020, pandemic lockdowns have been punctuated by mass movements calling for political change. What characteristics allow such protests to make an im

15 DECEMBER 2020 

The year of lockdowns was simultaneously a year of protest and citizen action. Throughout 2020 numerous hashtags on social media demanded our attention towards protest movements, accompanied by sometimes inspiring and sometimes horrifying images. #EndSARS, #BlackLivesMatter, #ShutItAllDown, #zwartepietisracism, #NotMyPresident, the list goes on; all demonstrating to us the commitment and fearlessness of ordinary citizens across the world asking for equal treatment and concern. 

In Sudan, protest movements brought about direct change in government last year. People who were actively protesting on the streets are now part of that government.

Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Africa Programme

For the Common Futures Conversations community, where young people from Africa and Europe discuss key international issues, the impact of protests and citizen action also became a central focus; not least as young people were frequently found at the heart of these movements.

Many of the protest movements we have seen this year were catalysed by single events: moments which ignited long-held grievances and concerns. The most internationally recognizable is the murder of George Floyd in the United States, but there are many more examples of deaths or serious abuses that created a spark. While such sparks instigate sudden and intense swells of support, it can sometimes also mean that the resulting protests are disorganized, repeat previous mistakes and communicate their demands poorly.

Protesters are often painted as disruptors, terrorists and a nuisance, yet across the world demonstrations and direct action have been a vital form of political engagement: providing women the right to vote, people of colour the right to citizenship and people everywhere the right to stand up against populism.

Civic engagement must become an expected part of democracy; it is not a threat to democratic governments.

Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

In the face of crisis, panic and retrenchment in 2020, many protests found their voices demanding the change needed for marginalized groups to survive. Beyond the call for us to find our humanity, these examples demonstrate that protests are still and perhaps increasingly a method of crucial political participation.

This also means that society must become better at protesting. We must learn from previous protest movements’ successes and failures, from their tactics and methods and from their determination to be inclusive.

Protest should always be seen as a legitimate avenue towards policy change and influence, and one that must therefore professionalize to make politics more reflective of societies’ wants, needs and demands. To this end, ten members of the Common Futures Conversations community discuss impactful protest below.

From Protest to Policy Change: How Are Mass Movements Making an Impact in 2020?

Main body

1. Dialogue must be your first priority
2. Clearly communicate what you want
3. Include digital means of protest participation
Hugo Santiago Barrail (Spain)

You must focus on facilitating and strengthening dialogue mechanisms between the government and citizens. Antagonistic and violent strategies often prove counter-productive in bringing about sustainable and concrete change. Instead, protesters need to reach out both to those in power and unconvinced citizens through peaceful methods. There are many dialogue options available, including citizens’ assemblies, referendums and improving the participation of civil society in policy-making. 

Responsible citizens have an obligation to provide solutions and to institutionalize them in an inclusive way.

Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Africa Programme

When protests erupted in Chile in October 2019 over a rise in public transport fees, they were initially disjointed and disorganized. Many different groups, each voicing their own grievances, took to the streets and the government responded brutally. Key civil society groups and political parties then stepped in and soon enough found consensus around a single set of demands, to be pursued through a referendum process. Through the referendum, all Chileans were able to quantify support for concrete change, as a constitutional process was backed by an overwhelming majority of the electorate. 

The road to achieve sustainable change is always long for protesters but through dialogue mechanisms, you can institutionalize channels to voice grievances to those in power and increase the likelihood of success. 

2. Clearly communicate what you want

Salome Nthenya Nzuki (Kenya)

For a protest to be powerful, you must communicate clearly about why you are protesting and what changes you desire. When it comes to communication, there are clear lessons to draw from the #MyDressMyChoice protests in Kenya. In 2014, a woman in Kenya was publicly stripped by men at a bus station and groped for wearing a mini skirt. The men claimed she tempted them. Thousands of Kenyan women were angered by the act and the constant abuse of women while in transit. The incidence gave birth to the #MyDressMyChoice protests where Kenyan women took to the streets to demand the elimination of all forms of violence against women and, in particular, calling for prosecution of the men who stripped the woman and for this to be explicitly be made illegal.

The protests caught the attention of women’s rights organizations, the judiciary, the deputy president and the president himself. The men were arrested and prosecuted and it is now illegal in Kenya to strip a woman. Although we have a long way to go in terms of protecting women in public spaces in Kenya, the #MyDressMyChoice protests made it clear that if you assault a woman you will be prosecuted. A key reason for the success of the protest was that Kenyan women were very clear in their demands.

3. Include digital means of protest participation

Laura Sanzarello (Italy)

You should recognize the crucial role of social media’s facilitation of digital protest participation. From the Arab Revolution to the #MeToo movement, both traditional and digital platforms have provided a valuable contribution through their ability to spread news, create visual representations of events and extending the potential for active engagement beyond physical barriers.

47.8 million mentions of #BlackLivesMatter were recorded on Twitter between 26 May and 7 June 2020. 

During the pandemic, mass gatherings represented a health hazard for both individuals and the wider community. However, movements like #BlackLivesMatter have nonetheless been able to obtain worldwide visibility and support. The use of hashtags, amatorial reporting, live-streaming and instant communication has enabled international engagement, reduced the chances of suppression and manipulation of stories and shown the importance of digital protest participation.

Digital participation’s effectiveness does not just apply to individual action, it can also help draw the attention of international actors. This can pressure governments to engage with the matters animating protesters, demonstrating that both in-person and virtual contributions can help encourage impactful resolutions.

4. Listen to everyone’s concerns

Clinton Dangote (Cameroon)

You will need a broad coalition of many different people to support your protest if you want it to create change. Often protests occur when governmental policies are inconsistent with the needs of citizens. This can lead to urgent calls for change and one way to bring about this change is in the form of protests. However, it is crucial that protest movements do not make the same mistakes as governments. They must amplify the voices of the marginalized and the disenfranchised. This involves making sure to include a wide range of voices and not just listening to concerns and solutions of the first people to join a protest.

Protests are often seen in contexts where governments support those at the top and disadvantage those at the bottom.

Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

A protest can only bring about valuable policy change, when it is well-planned, focused, and the demands are clear. Protesters must express their displeasure and constructively present their demands as one voice. Proactive leaders must engage all protesters in a dialogue and find common demands to meet their needs. This way a protest can mirror the way the general public feels about a given policy.

5. Use social media, where one click makes a difference

Mateusz Ciasnocha (Poland) 

You should leverage social media for the benefits of protests. Social media has changed and is continuously changing our lives. During the earthquakes in Nepal or the terrorist attacks in Christchurch and Paris, our friends were able to mark themselves as ‘safe’. These small actions created a unique sense of global unity, which we should build on when it comes to protests. Creating a campaign, a new group, or even proposing a new overlay for your profile photo are all happening today. These campaigns can go viral and are a great mechanism for creating momentum for your demands for change.

It is clear that our actions on social media can lead to positive change. Protest movements should take the time to create frameworks and mechanisms, to help transform momentum into real positive change in an inclusive, transparent and efficient manner. 

6. Create inclusive working groups

Barima Peprah-Agyemang (Ghana)

You should create frameworks for protest participants which work together to approach problems and create inclusive solutions. Protest movements are often dismissed by governments by deploying excuses along the lines of ‘their demands are unclear’ or ‘they have no solutions’, as happened with the Occupy Wall Street protests. A way to ensure that protest movements are able to stand together in support of solutions is by forming ‘working groups’. These groups gather the concerns of the protesters, sit down to analyse the responses and then develop specific demands and solutions that represent what protesters want. 

This requires professionalizing a protest movement and will create a reliance on people from professions like law, community organizing and economics, but should be open for any protestor to join. This would enable protest movements to capture varying opinions that enrich the specific solutions being prepared. 

The work of these groups would not only pre-empt standard excuses used by governments to avoid change, but would also enable them to project an image of seriousness to the world, an ingredient necessary to secure support for the struggle.

7. Professionalize your media outreach

Paula Stuurman (Netherlands)

You need to professionalize your approach to communicating the protest internationally. Real-time news reporting pushes events to the forefront at lightning speed but replaces them just as quickly. In 2020 the world saw many protests met with violence, for example when US militias policed the streets as a response to Black Lives Matter protests or when police conducted violent acts against protestors in Belarus. We saw these events because protestors themselves provided videos of the violence, but they then quickly disappeared from the world stage of media attention.

Through meticulously documenting protests, altercations and human rights violations—harnessing the power of social media to continue to inform a global audience—protestors can inspire public outrage, support and ultimately policy changes once their voice can no longer be ignored.

To maintain the media’s attention and overcome the 24-hour news-cycle, protestors need to develop a professional approach to documenting protests to magnify their voices internationally. This reporting must be honest and unbiased, drawing on the lessons from human rights organisations’ techniques to maintain the public’s attention.

8. Connect with social activists from across the world

Zakaria Ouadah (Algeria)

You must engage with social activists in other countries who are also striving for change. Today’s technological resources demonstrate how effective virtual spaces are for connecting and working together, something which the Common Futures Conversations platform has demonstrated to me. Engaging with international networks composed of social activists who can support your movements and provide you a space to share your experiences, can be very advantageous to your cause.

78 large-scale protests across the world have been recorded by the Global Protest Tracker in 2020.

It is crucial to link up with organizations in your own country which are working towards similar goals, but do not underestimate the value of connecting to other social activists as well.

The networking, support and expanded skills resulting from engaging with others can help protests movements put themselves into a position where the authorities are forced to enter a phase of dialogue and hopefully answer the demands given to them.

9. Citizen action should start in schools

Ella Burdett (United Kingdom)

You should make sure to include young people in discussions on citizen action and educate them on protests, policy change and political engagement. From an early age, people should learn that their voice is important and how they personally can impact politics and policy. The issue is, however, that schools do not sufficiently educate children on how policy works and in failing to do so send them out into the world without the tools to change it. 

Protest should not been seen as synonymous with violence but with dialogue.

Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

In the United Kingdom there are Personal, Social, Health and Economic (PSHE) lessons, but neither the statutory nor the optional subjects include political participation, policy change or citizen action. Yet, as participation is integral to democracy, education on civic and political engagement is essential for creating citizens who understand how to critically participate in a democratic society. 

Compulsory civics classes in secondary schools would therefore provide all children with equal tools to make their voice heard. In the absence of this, take any opportunity to educate younger people in your society on the importance of standing up for your principles and the mechanisms available to succeed.

10. Combine all non-violent protest mechanisms

Ashiru Ayuba Dannomau (Nigeria)

You should learn from previous successful protests and research all the non-violent approaches that could be effective. There are many ways that non-violent protest approaches are effective; they convey a vital message to both government officials and citizens that peoples’ lives matter. In this way, drawing on lessons from previous non-violent approaches helps protect the life of every individual and allows for strategic tactics to pursue the change you wish to see.

Protest organizers must learn about past methods that have worked, why they may be effective and relevant to your context, and then ensure the whole movement learns these lessons collectively. It will also help protest leaders be more strategic in their tactics, in their approach to governments and when moulding the ideas of citizens into policy demands.

During the #EndSARS protests in Nigeria, I witnessed how people lost their lives and property because they came out to protest against police brutality. I also saw how this youth movement repeated past mistakes because everyone was saying different things and there was a lack of coordination in message and action. 

We must learn from previous protest movements to prevent such confusion, all the while keeping in mind that whenever someone is killed, injured or has their property destroyed during a protest that it is hazardous to your community. 

पार्ट 3
HOW TO FORM A SUCCESSFUL SOCIAL MOVEMENT


Social change does not happen over night, nor does it happen without a mobilized mission and steadfast support. From civil rights and women’s suffrage to anti-apartheid and Occupy Wall Street, each social movement represents a cause founded upon principles of freedom and equality. However, while these initiatives share many common ideas and aims, no two movements are alike. Every social movement experiences varying degrees of success and failure. So what distinguished successful social action from the unsuccessful efforts?

Movement Action Plan (MAP)

According to American journalist and social change activist Bill Moyer social movements take time and years of planning. While this may seem like an obvious observation, many movements are all too quickly deemed ineffective before given the chance to flourish. Just because a movement does not reach its long-term goals during the first outbreak of social opposition does not mean the movement as a whole has failed. In fact, highly successful action builds momentum over time and continues to do so even after social objectives are met. In the 1970s, Moyer developed the MAP based on his analysis of numerous successful social movements. From these case studies, Moyer established eight distinct stages that help activists create effective tactics and strategies in hopes of building successful initiatives.

8 Steps to Success

1. Identify a social problem
2. Demonstrate institutional failures
3. Prepare nonviolent grassroots
4. Educate the public
5. Acknowledge opposition
6. Dedicate to long-term goals
7. Recognize success
8. Retain success

On the other hand, there are many noble causes with passionate supporters that simply lack the political organization and focus to get off the ground and make a serious impact on popular opinion. A CNN article, ‘Why Some Movements Work and Others Wilt,’ highlights some of the common errors of failed social initiatives, such as the Occupy Wall Street movement.

4 Things to Avoid

1. Do not be deceived by spontaneity
2. Do not just take it to the streets
3. Do not underestimate silent suffering
4. Do not fight the Man; work with him

The article sheds light on common misconceptions and stereotypes placed on social movements. Not all action has to be radical, aggressive, and impulsive. On the contrary, successful initiatives tend to be slow, deliberate, and subtle. “Successful movements just don’t take it to the streets. They elect candidates, pass laws, set up institutions to raise money, train people and produce leaders.” Likewise, rarely is there one event that sparks outright revolution, but rather, the “steady build up” of social discontent and degradation eventually leads to action.

Equally important to the success of a social movement is its leaders’ ability to work with, not against, governmental institutions. The political and economic support of influential elites provides legitimization for many social causes. “A movement, though, can’t appeal to the altruism of elites to get their support. Elites help movements when they feel their own interests are threatened.”

The Borgen Project finds much success in mitigating global poverty due, in great part, to its determined collaboration with United States congressional leaders. Not only does the campaign emphasize all the ways alleviating global poverty works in the best interest of the U.S., but The Borgen Project also uses legislation to support effective policies in order to combat global poverty.

The successes are numerous, as the campaign continues to improve the lives of people all over the world. “Over the past 20 years, the number of the world’s chronically undernourished has been reduced by 50 percent.” The mission is by no means complete, but in order to retain success, The Borgen Project continues to educate and advocate in the fight against global injustices.

arth chintan 2021

Employment Centric Growth with Self Reliance :Ashwani ji
The policies of globalization of the last 30 years have yielded mixed results. While the GDP growth during this period was much higher than the planned growth of the preceding 40 years, employment opportunities were not proportionately created. That is why the GDP growth of this period was called ‘jobless growth’. While on the one hand not enough employment opportunities were being created, some economists argued that the pace of poverty reduction in the country has accelerated during this period. Although according to government data, the pace of poverty reduction is said to be faster than before, especially in the last two decades; it is not visible in terms of the indicators of conditions of the poor. For example, the pace of reduction in malnutrition of children and women is very slow. Similarly, other parameters of health and health facilities also do not indicate a significant improvement.
Bhagwati versus Sen
Nevertheless, there is a section of economists who believe that growth is remedy for all economic ills, who argue that if growth happens, benefits of increased GDP will percolate downward, by way of employment, incomes and greater availability of goods and services. This process is called, ‘Trickle Down’. Protagonists of GDP growth argument, while explaining their point, tell that if size of GDP is small, even if we distribute it equally, everybody will get a small piece; however if size of GDP grows, there will be a chance of getting a larger piece out of the same. Same thing is being told by Jagdish Bhagwati, “redistribution is possible with growth, but growth is not possible with redistribution”.

However, a good number of economists do not agree with prontogonists of  growth. They say that ‘Trickle Down Theory’ is not a practical one. Growth without redistribution does not bring improvement in quality of life of masses. Amartya Sen elaborates the same view, when he says that though growth is important to improve life of people, but it must be accompanied by improvement in social indicators, such as literacy and health.
These economists believe in the 'rights approach'. They argue that humans, who are deprived of the benefits of growth must be compensated for the same, as a matter of 'right'. Therefore, they talk of 'right to employment', 'right to food', 'right to health services', ' right to education' etc. But these economists also believe that growth is an important precondition for improving lives of the people.

Therefore, Bhagwati and his co-author Panagariya write that if growth is important than why Prof. Sen does not advocate policies for encouraging growth. In fact this hot controversy between two great economists, both of Indian origin, is nothing but a replica of age old debate of redistribution versus growth.

If we see the practical part of implementing the 'rights approach', it costs heavily to the government. Though, it may be generally believed that with growth government revenue will increase more than proportionately and therefore, increased expenditure required for implementing welfare expenditure, providing for facilities required to implement the 'rights approach' can be financed, on practical grounds this doesn’t seem to be an easy task. For instance, though government has been implementing the legislations made in the past towards these goals, it is finding difficult to cope up with rising demands for spending on MNREGA, right to education, right to food and right to health services. Competitive populism also tends to inflate expenditure on these items.
Therefore, while this is a foregone conclusion that merely GDP growth, by whatever means is no guarantee for improving the lives and livelihood of the peoples in the country, even the redistribution approach though looks attractive, may not be a plausible solution for achieving the objective of social welfare.
Prof. Sen’s model of redistribution relates with socialism, whereas Prof. Bhagwati’s first love is capitalism. Same ‘old wines’ are being served in new bottles, in the name of Sen and Bhagwati Models, despite their miserable failure in India. These models cannot do any good for masses in the long run. To raise employment, we cannot continuously depend on Government budget. Today we are following the policy of temporary employment creation in the name of MGNREGA. This type of policy may provide short term income support to unemployed, but this cannot be long term solution for eradicating unemployment in the rural areas. Similarly, food security through PDS or mid-day-meal, are all short term measures and continuously depend on public budget.
In the last 30 years, the blind race for globalization has caused a major damage to employment generation. During this period, unemployment has increased in almost every country of the world except China. While the unemployment rate in America is 6.2 percent, in England it is 5.1 percent, in Germany and France it is 5.9 and 9 percent respectively. Worst sufferer of this phenomenon has been the youth. Along with this, the quality of employment has also deteriorated as the youth (not fit for high tech jobs) is forced to work in very low paid jobs. According to a report of OECD, in India, there were 30 percent of the youth (between age of 15 and 29 years) who were neither in education, nor in employment or in training (NEET), which means they were unemployed. In many countries of Europe, youth unemployment has reached more than 50 percent. That is to say, both developed countries and developing countries, have been struggling with lack of employment opportunities in the last 3 decades.
Appropriate Technology
Every year, about 20 million people are added to the population of India. Today, a large proportion of the population is young due to the pattern of population growth in the last 30–40 years. Today, two-third of the country's population is below 35 years of age. And more than 36 percent of it is in the age group of 15 to 35 years. From this point of view, the India is most youthful country in the world; and that is why India is now called 'Youngistan'. Such a situation is also defined as ‘demographic dividend’, because large size of youth population makes it possible for the country to grow rapidly by using capacities of the youth. This has always been a concern of the policy-makers about how to take advantage of this benefit.
It's well known India missed first three industrial revolutions and lagged behind the developed countries of today and most of our efforts have always been to follow them and catch up growth. The challenge facing India today is not only to compensate for its unsatisfactory performance in the second and third industrial revolutions, but also to actively participate in the fourth industrial revolution. It is true that robotics, artificial intelligence, drones etc will hurt employment generation, but this is equally true that new technology also reduces costs. For example, companies that use Artificial Intelligence, robots, drones, etc., are able to reduce costs. As the cost decreases, the industry becomes more competitive in the global markets. But the loss of indiscriminate employment in the name of new technology also cannot be justified. In such a situation, policy makers will have to show sensitively and seriousness in terms of choice of technology.
The issue of appropriate technology is of utmost importance. In today's era, this choice is influenced by the market. Since costs are reduced due to robotics and artificial intelligence, its use is justified from private profit perspective. However, it should not be forgotten that loss of employment also has its own social cost. When people are out of employment, their capacities and skills are not utilized. To compensate for their income, the government has to spend in some form or the other. That is, on the one hand, the cost of company's decreases, but its real cost falls on the rest of society through the government.
 
But Technology Development Should Not Stop

Be it artificial intelligence, robotics, block chains or drones, they are also becoming symbols of development in modern times. New innovations are taking place in this area. Their demand is also increasing around the world. Due to the superior skills of our youth in software development, science and technology, today a large number of our youth are also making new discoveries in these fields and they also have big stakes in this revolution. India's startups are moving ahead in the field of drone production. Robots have also been developed rapidly in many areas. In any case, it will not be beneficial for the country to stop this development. Today, there is a need to start a debate in the country on how to use these new technologies, so that on the one hand the country may emerge a leader in this field in the world; on the other hand, by choosing appropriate technology, we create sufficient job opportunities for our youth skilled and unskilled.

Job Creation with Self Reliance

Prime Minister in his Independence Day speech, had said that self-reliance is not a word, it’s a resolve. To fulfil the national resolve, efforts will have to be made at all levels. PM said that country can no longer remain an exporter of raw materials and importer of finished goods. To make the country capable to produce for the world, we need to make all out efforts. Apart from curbing unequal competition from imports, by way of raising tariffs, anti-dumping and countervailing duties, non-tariff measures including standards; we need to make efforts to create an eco-system to develop domestic industry. We understand that in the post-independence period our economic and industrial development has been badly affected by excessive regulations, bureaucratic hurdles, red-tape, inspector raj, socialist mindset and strangulation of our entrepreneurs. In the post new economic policy period, though the rhetoric was of lifting regulations, red tape, giving encouragement to private enterprise, government policy remained concentrated to only import liberalization, allowing MNCs in the name of FDI and amending domestic laws to only facilitate foreigners. Obsession for free trade and import liberalization (especially from China) resulted in destroying our industries, rather than making our industry efficient. FDI also didn’t help in transfer of new technology. Rather in the name of technology outflow of foreign exchange increased manifold by way of royalty and technical fees.
Country has witnessed that how our small industry and even individuals came forward and made face masks and PPE kits when they were in short supply, and China was trying to profiteer from our helplessness. Similarly, many labs came forward to address the problem of shortage of testing facilities and today we not only have sufficient facility of testing COVID19, cost of testing has also come down drastically. When country and the world was witnessing a shortage of ventilators, one Company Skanray Technologies, Mysuru, which was producing 5000 ventilators in a month, took the hill task of helping companies to fulfill the requirements of the country, by generously sharing the design of their ventilators, with other manufacturers and made it possible to manufacture 60,000 ventilators in the country in a short span of two months; and now country is exporting ventilators in huge quantity and is fulfilling the world's demand. Hard work of our farmers instils confidence in the countrymen that we don’t face shortage of food items anymore. During Corona period, we see many examples of how, many employers continued with payment to their workers despite lock down. We need to understand that; lot of damage has been caused by the blind obsession towards globalisation, in the yesteryears, impacting domestic production and employment and has led to excessive dependence on other countries, especially China.
Time has now come to give encouragement to domestic efforts to increase production indigenously. These efforts are becoming visible. For increasing production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), a production linked incentives (PLI) package of more than rupees 12 thousand crores has been rolled out. For electronics and mobile phones PLI package of more than rupees 42 thousand crores has been given. In all a PLI package of nearly 2 lakh crores has been announced covering 13 sectors. Nation has witnessed, how our industry both big and small, responded to the Corona challenge by producing PPE kits, N95 masks, ventilators and many other equipment. We supplied HCQ tablets to the world. Pharma industry is not only producing sufficient vaccines, enough to not only vaccinate the whole population, but also help the rest of the world. We are producing Covid medicines for domestic needs and also for exports.
Under these circumstances, government’s budgetary push is important but not sufficient. We need to change the mindset of the bureaucracy, regulatory bodies, government’s machinery, judiciary and media. We need to get rid of rules and regulations designed to foster socialist system. We need to allow our young entrepreneurs (start-ups) to freely work to flourish their new ideas to bring in new technology and generate wealth. Modi government’s push to start ups, needs to be taken to the next level. Dream of ‘Make in India’ has to be realized by encouraging Indian youth entrepreneurs. We know that India missed the bus of first, second and third industrial revolutions. It’s a time for fourth industrial revolution, which is digital revolution. Given huge size of Indian economy and huge market opportunities, global giants are trying to exploit the potentials in their favour. Many people think that we are undergoing a threat of digital colonisation also. We need to seize this opportunity and make our country Atmanirbhar digitally as well. COVID-19 though came as a pandemic, a threat and a challenge; our country has resolved to convert the same into an opportunity. We need to work towards the same and take our country out of foreign economic dominance, unemployment, poverty, deprivation and stigma of underdevelopment.
Let’s usher in a new era of self-reliant villages, with job creation at village level in dairy, poultry, horticulture, floriculture, bamboo farming, cottage industry, food processing, high value crops and more and more value addition at village level; a new eco system, where our villagers are not constrained to migrate to cities. In manufacturing, let’s not be dependent on China or any other country. Making world class goods for domestic and international markets, as Prime Minister says with 'zero defect and zero (environmental) effect'. After getting disillusioned from China, whole world is looking towards India as an alternative. Let’s turn this crisis into an opportunity.
Under these circumstances we need a Government policy, which facilitates employment to poor on permanent basis; and which is productive too. For this we need to change the production system. Policies need to be devised which create more employment opportunities, along with increase in production. We need to end indifference towards agriculture and make efforts to increase production and income of the farmers. Fair distribution of income is possible only if labour gets fair wages, farmer gets remunerative price for his produce and everybody is able to fulfill his/her basic needs. For this we do not need communism or socialism; what we need is integrated policy, where production, employment, investment and distribution are not separated, rather they are integrated and synchronised with one another.

Dr. Ashwani Mahajan